Political drama set the tone in February as investor attention turned toward Washington for glimpses of further policy detail. However, unexpected resignations in the U.S., surprises in the run-up to French elections and geopolitical flare-ups in Asia kept investors guessing.
Amid the uncertainty, anticipation grew of a possible U.S. rate hike as soon as March. In a slew of speeches, Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, expressed a desire to remain ahead of the curve. No shortage of positive economic data over the month further fueled speculation, and the probability of a hike surged.
Neither the spate of political noise nor the shift in rate hike expectations over the month did much to dampen investor confidence or risk appetite. Equity markets set new highs, including 12 record days in a row for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while emerging markets continued to outperform. In Europe, French election uncertainty sent bond spreads to highs not seen in four years.
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